UFC Fight Night Experts picks and best bets for Lewis-Nascimento

Injuries catch up to Knicks Nothing left to give

Derrick Lewis, a favorite among many MMA fans, makes his first Octagon appearance of 2024 as he takes on fellow heavyweight contender Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday in St. Louis (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).

Lewis has lost four of his past five fights, including a unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida in his most recent bout last November. Nascimento enters this bout riding a three-fight winning streak, each of those wins coming by decision. Neither fighter holds a spot in ESPN's divisional rankings.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach

How Lewis wins: Lewis should aim to start fast and keep Nascimento on his back foot to prevent him from getting comfortable. Lewis needs to limit his kicks and rely on his boxing skills to avoid creating easy takedown opportunities for Nascimento. He should incorporate his rear uppercut to counter Nascimento's level changes and use his frames to give himself space and keep Nascimento off his chest when he looks to body-lock. Lewis also needs to avoid resting with his back against the cage.

How Nascimento wins: Nascimento's movement and feints will be crucial against a power puncher like Lewis, particularly to set up his level changes. He should have an advantage in clinch positions, where he can employ his dirty boxing to set up his Greco wrestling or trips against the cage. His style of wrestling could prove effective against a larger opponent like Lewis. If Nascimento can take Lewis to the ground, maintaining top-side half guard will be key. He needs to focus on isolating and controlling Lewis's bottom leg to keep Lewis where he wants him.

X factor: Previous strength of schedule for Nascimento. Repeatedly, we've witnessed UFC matchmakers thrusting young, up-and-coming heavyweights into main event roles, only to see them falter -- fighters such as Almeida, Shamil Gaziev and Chris Daukaus. They all received high-profile opportunities against seasoned opponents very quickly. This feels reminiscent of those scenarios.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis by second-round TKO.

Betting analysis

Parker: Lewis to win (-155). For Lewis, the game plan is the same as always: Keep the fight standing, "swang and bang," as he says. On the feet, Lewis will have the advantage as he carries ridiculous power, while Nascimento's striking is average at best. And per usual, Lewis needs to avoid the ground game of his opponent. The odds currently have Lewis as the favorite, and I'm going that way. Lewis has been fighting at the top of the division forever, and Nascimento's fighting style should be no surprise to him. Look for Lewis to avoid the early takedown attempts and then earn another knockout victory.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card Welterweight: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Over 1.5 rounds (-140). Buckley asked, and his wish was granted. Buckley begged UFC CEO Dana White for a fight on this card, which is in his hometown, and he's getting that opportunity against a rising prospect in Ruziboev.

Ruziboev has won both of his UFC fights in the first round. However, I believe that stops here. In his last fight, he took advantage of a missed eye poke to get the job done early. A fight against Buckley is a big step up in competition, and I'm banking on Buckley's defense, foot movement and experience to take this fight into Round 2, if not Round 3. In his past eight fights, win or lose, Buckley has gone over 1.5 rounds, and that likely happens again here. If the fight does get out of the first round, don't be afraid to look at the live line as Buckley tends to turn it up as the fight goes on.

Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne

Despaigne to win (-200). After an 18-second TKO victory in his UFC debut, Despaigne gets another chance to continue this wild winning streak against Cortes-Acosta. I give Cortes-Acosta a lot of credit for taking this fight because it makes no sense for him stylistically. Unless Cortes-Acosta lands a one-punch KO or he magically learned how to wrestle since his last fight, I expect Despaigne to utilize his incredibly long reach to deliver another highlight-reel knockout in the first round. Until Despaigne fights someone who can get inside and wrestle, he will keep knocking people out.

Strawweight: Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington

Ricci to win (-150). This is a favorable matchup for Ricci. This fight is relatively even if it stays on the feet, but if it hits the ground, everything swings in Ricci's favor. Ricci won't have an issue with the power of Pennington, so I expect Ricci to move forward and close the distance as quickly as possible. Once she gets the fight to the mat, Ricci should be able to do enough damage with control time to win at least two of the three rounds and get a decision win.